The European Union's population is projected to decline by 11.7% between 2025 and 2100, according to Eurostat data. This means a reduction of 53 million people, from 452 million to 399 million. The reasons behind this trend are multifaceted, with migration, fertility rates, and age structure playing pivotal roles. Here's a deep dive into the countries facing the sharpest declines and those experiencing growth, along with the factors driving these demographic shifts.
The Declining Population
The countries with the most significant population declines are Latvia (33.9%), Lithuania (33.4%), Poland (31.6%), and Greece (30.1%). These projections indicate that over three in ten people could be lost in these countries by 2100. Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Romania, Italy, and Hungary also face declines above 20%. Portugal, Estonia, Czechia, Finland, Slovenia, and Germany experience declines between 10% and 20%.
Factors Driving Decline
Dr. Tomas Sobotka, deputy director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, attributes the variation in population dynamics to differences in past and projected migration rates and age structures. Countries with low fertility and outmigration in the past decades tend to have older populations with fewer young and reproductive-age individuals. Southern European countries, known for their lower fertility rates, contribute to this trend.
Dr. Anne Goujon from the same institute highlights the balance between natural change and net migration. Countries with sustained immigration, like Luxembourg and Malta, can still grow despite low fertility beyond 2050. Conversely, countries with low fertility and weaker migration inflows or negative net migration tend to decline, such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
The Role of Fertility and Migration
Dr. Dmitri Jdanov from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research emphasizes that migration is the sole factor ensuring population growth in Europe. Assumptions regarding migration vary widely among countries, and the current level of fertility cannot support the current population size without migration. Country-specific differences in mortality are not significant enough to explain the population dynamics.
Spain's Exception
Among the EU's 'Big Four' countries, Spain is the only one expected to see population growth, albeit modest at 1.3%. This is primarily due to a high level of immigration in the last three decades, which has kept its population growing despite low fertility rates.
Shifting Population Rankings
Projected population trends will alter the rankings of the most populous countries. Spain is set to surpass Italy to become the third most populous country, with Italy's population expected to decline by 15 million. Switzerland, Ireland, and Norway will see significant rises in their rankings, while Bulgaria, Portugal, and Greece will experience the largest declines.
Uneven Population Trends
Population changes across Europe are not linear. Some countries will grow for a period before declining, resulting in a final population level that may be lower or higher than in 2025. For instance, the EU population is projected to fall below current levels by 2040, while Spain's population is expected to rise by around 10% by 2055 before falling back to just 1% above 2025 levels by 2100.
Aging Population
The EU population is projected to be significantly older by 2100. The share of people aged 85 and over is expected to more than triple, from 3.2% in 2025 to 10.8% by 2100. Those aged 66 to 84 are also expected to increase their share, making up nearly one in three Europeans by 2100, compared to one in five today. Meanwhile, every younger age group is expected to shrink as a share of the total.
In conclusion, the EU's population decline is a complex issue influenced by migration, fertility rates, and age structures. The varying trends across countries highlight the need for tailored policies to address the unique challenges each nation faces in adapting to these demographic shifts.
